COFFEE MARKET - TRADER UPDATE

Update - 21/12/2011 - 09:52

Further supportive moves on both markets as a weaker Dollar aligned to NY Dec expirey prompted fresh buying impetus to NYC, with London also finding support from early trades.

We suspect further supportive moves up until the festive break but look to next week's restricted festive sessions to maybe provide some incentive for lower moves. We shall see...

Update - 05/12/2011 - 09:31

A suprisingly lower session for both NYC & Liffee as solid spec & fund liquidation , prompted by latest US umemployment figures forcing a lower Dollar currency, moved US levels below the recent C.230-240 range lows but finding some support late in the day.

London also fell sharply from early pm, prompting a return to early week mid $1900 levels for all nearby positions.

We look to see if Friday's lower moves continue today with the possibility of setting new recent ranges lows... although we suspect some support may not be too far away. We shall see.

Currency

$/£: 1.5599                       €/$: 1.3399

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Update - 24/11/2011 - 09:43

It's black arm day for Turkeys ....especially in the US.

Please note NYC is closed for Thanksgiving today...

Typical pre-holiday actvity with early support dwindling once above C.240.00, falling back in later trades to close in modest negative territory. London found late support in a slightly better volume session but we suspect activity will be somewhat ranged today. We shall see!

*NEWS FLASH* - 22/11/2011 - 10:11

 Colombia, the second-largest supplier of Arabica coffee beans after Brazil, trimmed its 2011 production estimate by 5.9 percent following rainstorms.

Output will slide to 8 million bags this year from 8.9 million bags last year, a spokeswoman at Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers, who can’t be identified because of federation policy, said today by telephone in Bogota.

Coffee has rallied about 14 percent in a year as adverse weather in Colombia erodes inventories of Arabica favored by brewers such as Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) The cut in Colombia’s harvest forecast is the second since Nov. 4, when federation Chief Executive Officer Luis Munoz predicted output of 8.5 million bags, down from a prior estimate of 9 million bags.

Source - Bloomberg

Update - 22/11/2011 - 08:52

A very quiet start to the coffee week with low volumes & tight ranges dominating the session. NYC quickly reversed early highs, easing back from the mid session, to close C.1.85 lower whereas London also eased from late morning highs, closing in modest negative territory - down $9.0.

We suspect further ranged activity over the next few days with volume likely to suffer in London on Friday ahead the BCA Coffee Dinner.

Currency

 $/£: 1.5642              €/$: 1.3498

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Update - 18/11/2011 - 11:25

Both markets eased yesterday amid continued Dollar strength forcing values back torward range lows in the US market.

Whilst the C.235-245 range NY Mar held (just!), we suspect further modest pressure in today's final session of the week. London had a further quiet affair with levels easing towards the close. A further ranged session ahead we feel.

Currency

$/£: 1.5780              €/$: 1.3468

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Update - 10/11/2011 - 09:22

Analysis

A further day of Euro-zone concern in which further doubts were cast over the capability of Italy to meet it's mounting debts. Defaults from this major EU player would have far reaching ramifications.

Thankfully coffee markets (and softs in general) had a quieter session with early lower action countered late in the session with trade & industry support. 

We suspect further ranged trades today , subject to any fresh news from the EU?

Currency

$/£: 1.5940                      €/$:1.3525

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